Dormant wallet reactivation calculator
The wallets that stopped showing up can still hold a lot of value. This puts a number on it.
Your numbers
Defaults are the median across the protocols we onboarded last quarter. Overwrite anything you know.
Wallets that transacted with you once but not in the last 90 days.
Share you hold an email, push token or wallet inbox for. This is usually the binding constraint.
Of those reached, the share that transacts again within 30 days of the campaign.
Fees, spread or subscription attributable to one active wallet per month.
How long a reactivated wallet stays active before going quiet again.
Incentives, creative and sending cost for the whole reactivation programme.
What counts as a dormant wallet?
A wallet is dormant when it has interacted with your contracts at least once and then gone quiet for longer than your natural usage cycle. For a perps venue that might be 14 days. For a staking protocol it might be a quarter. Ninety days is a reasonable default if you have no cycle in mind.
The distinction that matters is dormant versus lost. A lost wallet has withdrawn its balance and moved on. A dormant wallet often still holds a position, which is exactly why it is worth a message.
Why reachability decides the number
Teams tend to argue about reactivation rate. It is the wrong lever. Move the rate from 8% to 12% and the result shifts modestly; move reachability from 30% to 60% and it doubles.
Reachability is a collection problem, not a messaging problem. Every touchpoint where a wallet connects is an opportunity to ask for one durable channel, and asking early gives you more chances to collect one than asking when a customer is already leaving.
Reactivation revenue is not one payment
The mistake in most back-of-envelope versions of this maths is treating a reactivated wallet as a single transaction. It is a cohort that resumes contributing at roughly the rate of your existing active base, then decays again.
That is why the months-retained input exists. Set it to what your data says rather than to the number you would like. A reactivated wallet that stays seven months is worth more than four times one that stays one month and leaves.
Ask for a channel at connect, not at churn
The cheapest reachability gain is a single optional field at wallet connect. Wallets that give you an address at their first session are the ones still interested enough to answer.
Trigger on the drift, not the departure
Dormancy is visible weeks before it is complete: fewer sessions, smaller positions, a bridge out. Start the message on the leading signal rather than waiting for a 90-day sweep.
Say what happened while they were gone
The highest-performing reactivation message is specific and unflattering to send: what changed, what their position did, what they missed. A generic we-miss-you message gives them nothing to act on.
Segment by why they left
Wallets that left after a fee change need different copy from wallets that left after a failed transaction. One segment, one reason, one message.
Price the incentive against retained months
An incentive that buys one transaction is a cost. One that buys seven months of activity is an investment. Model the incentive against the months-retained figure above before you set it.